United States: the Fed raises rates again at its 27–28 October meeting

Thesis

At its meeting of 27–28 October 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the federal funds target range again from 3 3/4–4%, after September consumer prices accelerated to 3.7% year on year. On this reading, the majority view recorded in the September minutes, that another increase would probably be appropriate before year-end, is acted on at the first opportunity.

Why

Context as of 16 October 2026: the minutes of the 15–16 September FOMC meeting, published on 7 October, record a unanimous quarter-point increase to 3 3/4–4% and a majority of participants judging that another increase would probably be appropriate before year-end, without committing to future decisions; they list the next meeting for 27–28 October. On 14 October the BLS reported that year-on-year inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, with a monthly increase of 0.6%; gasoline rose 9.1% in the month, more than half the increase, and 34.2% year on year, attributed to the war with Iran and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. CME FedWatch put the probability of another increase at 47.1%. The thesis tests whether the committee moves in October rather than later. Topic surfaced through media monitoring; only the cited published events support it.

Assumptions

• The outcome is read from the FOMC statement released at the end of the 27–28 October meeting.
• If the meeting is rescheduled, the thesis applies to the first FOMC decision after 16 October 2026.

Cited events

• 14 Oct 2026La inflación de EE. UU. sube al 3,7 % en septiembre, impulsada por la gasolina, y aumenta la probabilidad de otra subida de tipos de la Fed
• 7 Oct 2026La Reserva Federal publica las actas de septiembre: subida unánime y la mayoría ve otra antes de fin de año

Rival explanations

Earlier versions

• 16 Oct 2026United States: the Fed raises rates again at its 27–28 October meeting