North Macedonia
Current situation
North Macedonia's EU path stays blocked by the Bulgarian constitutional dispute despite stronger growth
Prepared by Valyzer's AI analyst team · sources cited
North Macedonia cannot move its accession talks forward until it amends its constitution to recognise Bulgarians, a condition in its 2022 negotiating framework. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski said in January 2026 he will not do so without rights for Macedonians in Bulgaria and guarantees on identity, language and future vetoes; amendments need 80 votes. The economy grew 4.3% year on year in Q2 2026, led by investment, though wiiw expects 5% inflation to weigh on consumption.
- Headwind
Constitutional deadlock with Bulgaria
On 29 January 2026 Mickoski told parliament there would be no constitutional amendments while he is prime minister unless Bulgaria grants its Macedonian community internationally guaranteed rights and the EU guarantees Macedonian identity, language and no further bilateral vetoes. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the agreed constitutional change is the next and only step.
- Tailwind
Investment-led growth pick-up
GDP grew 4.3% year on year in Q2 2026, up from 3.1% in Q1 and the fastest since late 2024. Gross investment rose 16.5% and construction 21.9%, while exports grew 10.4%. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth reached 1.3%.
- Watch
Inflation and external risks
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) forecasts 2026 growth of 2.9% and inflation of 5.0%, noting that seasonally adjusted growth slowed to 0.3% in Q1 and that higher inflation is likely to weaken consumption.
Sources (4)
- North Macedonia PM Mickoski sets two conditions for constitutional amendments BTA
- North Macedonia's PM: no unconditional constitutional changes without guarantees from Bulgaria and EU BTA
- North Macedonia Q2 GDP growth at over 1-year high Trading Economics
- North Macedonia – country overview Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
Regional context
Europe faces a second energy shock, sticky inflation and weak growth while competitiveness reforms advance slowly
- Headwind
Energy shock revives inflation and rate hikes
The Commission's Spring 2026 forecast cut EU growth to 1.1% for 2026 and raised inflation to 3.1%, citing the Middle East conflict. The ECB hiked twice in 2026, taking the deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September; its staff project 3.0% headline inflation this year. The IMF warns gas stocks in parts of Europe are below seasonal norms.
- Headwind
Regulation and the productivity gap with the US
According to the Draghi report (September 2024), around 70% of the EU-US gap in per-capita GDP at PPP is explained by lower EU productivity, and more than 60% of EU companies see regulation as an obstacle to investment. It counts about 100 tech-focused EU laws and estimates extra investment needs of €750-800bn a year.
- Watch
Simplification agenda: delivery still being tested
The Commission says 90% of its Competitiveness Compass flagships draw on Draghi and reported €8.4bn in simplification savings (self-reported, September 2025). In May 2026 the Council and Parliament provisionally agreed to delay AI Act high-risk obligations to December 2027 and August 2028. Measurable effects on investment and innovation are not yet visible in the data.
North Macedonia vs Europe vs the world
| Indicator | Country | Europe median | World median | Vs Europe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth · 2025 | 3.5 % | 1.8 % | 3.4 % | Better than Europe |
| GDP per capita · 2025 | 10,490 USD | 35,917 USD | 7,865 USD | Worse than Europe |
| R&D spending (share of GDP) · 2024 | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | In line |
| Regulatory quality (World Bank index) · 2025 | 0.45 | 0.85 | -0.09 | Worse than Europe |
| Government effectiveness (World Bank index) · 2025 | 0.2 | 1.06 | 0.09 | Worse than Europe |
| Energy import dependency · 2024 | 72.9 % | 60.8 % | 77.4 % | More exposed |
| Trade openness (share of GDP) · 2025 | 133 % | 105.1 % | 79.5 % | More open |
| Exports to China (share of total) · 2024 | 1.1 % | 2.5 % | 3.6 % | Less exposed |
| Renewables in electricity · 2025 | 53.1 % | 48.7 % | 40.3 % | Better than Europe |
| Liberal democracy index (V-Dem) · 2025 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 0.35 | Worse than Europe |
Medians use the countries that publish the figure that year.
Structural context
North Macedonia is a landlocked southeastern European republic with an open, reforming economy and NATO membership.
- Politics
- The collected introduction does not establish the present political situation.
- Economy
- The source describes an upper-middle-income economy and reforms toward greater openness.
- Security
- Current security conditions are not established; missing evidence does not imply safety or absence of conflict.
- Foreign relations
- The source records NATO, UN and regional cooperation participation.
Structural context adapted from Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 4.0. Reviewed by Valyzer. source
Key numbers
Conflict0
Macro stress61
External dependency41
Government
- Head of state
- not ingested
- Head of government
- not ingested
Notable relations and tensions
- North Atlantic Treaty Organization diplomacy member of
Recent events
No published events for this country yet.